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Indian government bonds surged on Wednesday, as oil prices plunged after the U.S. agreed to a two-week Iran ceasefire, calming fears of an immediate escalation in the war, and resulting in bullish momentum before the central bank policy.

The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield was at 6.9177% as of 9:40 a.m. IST, after ending at 7.0458% on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision is due at 10:00 a.m. IST.

"RBI's words will resonate more than their actions. Amid a rapid shift in financial market narratives following the Middle East crisis, investors are likely to focus on the central bank's guidance. We expect policymakers to emphasize their capacity to contain domestic risks while refraining from signalling a clearly hawkish policy trajectory," DBS Bank said in a note.

Benchmark Brent crude slipped over 13% and was around $95 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, contingent on the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

India's central bank has sought to allay concerns over the impact of the West Asia conflict on remittance inflows, even as it flagged broader risks to external demand, trade, and the current account stemming from global uncertainties and elevated energy prices.

Speaking after the Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) meeting, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said remittances are unlikely to be significantly affected by the ongoing conflict, citing their diversified sources and long-term structural trends.

"On remittances, it comes from a rather diverse set of regions, the gulf regions' has come down over time, we have relatively low to medium skills people in the region who send these remittances past data shows that this moves only in one direction so we are not anticipating a dent to remittances from the Iran war," Gupta said.
Her remarks came against the backdrop of the RBI's broader assessment in its MPC statement, which highlighted that while remittance flows remain resilient in the near term, weaker global growth prospects could still pose risks by dampening external demand and potentially affecting inflows over time.

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $697.1 billion as of April 3, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said during the Monetary Policy Meeting on Wednesday, indicating a recovery after recent sharp declines driven by currency market interventions.

The uptick follows two consecutive weeks of depletion, during which the reserves had dropped to $688.058 billion as of March 27, according to Reserve Bank of India data. The stockpile had fallen by $10.288 billion in that week alone, after a steeper $11.413 billion decline in the preceding period.

The drawdown comes amid sustained pressure on the rupee, with the RBI widely seen as deploying its dollar reserves to curb volatility. The Indian currency has been among the worst-performing in Asia this year, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions linked to the West Asia conflict.

The Indian rupee sustained its gains on Monday as banks continued to unwind arbitrage trades, said currency dealers. The domestic currency rose 4 paise to 93.061 against the dollar, according to Bloomberg. During the day, it moved in the range of 92.78-93.10.

Followed by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) measures, the rupee logged its largest single-day gain in the prior session on April 2, closing at 93.10, as banks trimmed arbitrage positions.

The rupee has depreciated 2.3% since the beginning of the war. So far in the calendar year, it has fallen 3.5%.

On March 27, the RBI directed banks to cap net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable forex market at $100 million daily by April 10. It extended these curbs and barred lenders from offering certain offshore foreign exchange derivative contracts to both resident and non-resident clients.

There has been a sharp decline in equity valuation in India since the war in West Asia started at the end of last month.

The benchmark BSE Sensex’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple on Friday declined to over a year’s low of 20.2x (20.2 times).

This is the lowest trailing P/E for the benchmark index since May 2020, when the multiple had dropped to 19.56x.

For comparison, the benchmark index was trading at a trailing P/E of 22.3x at the end of February and 23.5x at the end of December.

Global equity fund flows turned negative for the first time since January 2026 as geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment, according to a report by Elara Securities.

The shift comes as the West Asia conflict enters its fifth week, triggering broad-based outflows across markets.

Emerging Markets Under Pressure
Emerging markets (EMs) continued to see outflows, though the pace of selling eased.

Global emerging market (GEM) funds recorded outflows of $730 million last week, compared with $2.7 billion in the previous week, taking cumulative outflows over the past three weeks to $3.7 billion.

Within EMs, India has emerged as the most impacted market.

Indian government bonds fell on the fiscal year's first trading day, pushing the 10-year yield toward a twelfth straight rise as oil climbed after President Donald Trump said attacks on Iran would continue, with traders cautious ahead of a debt sale.

Trump said that Washington would continue to hit targets in the Islamic Republic over the next two to three weeks, dimming hopes of a swift end to the war. Brent crude futures jumped over 6% to $107 a barrel on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol also warned that oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will rise in April, affecting Europe.

The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield was up about 4 bps at 7.0734% by 11:15 a.m. IST, its highest since May 21, 2024. It ended at 7.0345% in the previous session.

India's forex reserves dropped by USD 10.288 billion to USD 688.058 billion during the week ended March 27, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday.

In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined by USD 11.413 billion to USD 698.346 billion.

The kitty had expanded to an all-time high of USD 728.494 billion during the week ended February 27 this year, before the onset of the West Asia conflict.

The rupee has come under pressure since the start of the West Asia conflict, and the RBI has been intervening in the forex market through dollar sales and has also taken some surprising policy measures to harness the fall.

For the week ended March 27, foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, decreased by USD 6.622 billion to USD 551.072 billion, the central bank's data showed.

The benchmark Sensex has declined 23% in dollar terms, as reflected by the BSE Dollex 30 index, which fell from its record high of 8,418.89 on September 26, 2024, to 6,482.11 on April 2, 2026. In comparison, in rupee terms, the Sensex has dropped 14.58% during the same period, from its all-time high of 85,736.12 to 73,319.55. Besides India, Philippines (down 25.35%) was the only equity markets was in bear phase during this period.

A bear market is typically defined as a prolonged period in which market prices fall by 20% or more, signaling widespread investor pessimism and expectations of an economic slowdown.

The Indian rupee has depreciated by 11.31% (or 946 paise), weakening from 83.64 on September 26, 2024, to 93.11 on April 2, 2026.

Reassess your portfolio
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, triggering a rise in bond yields in India. Higher oil prices, along with a weakening rupee, are stoking inflation concerns and prompting investors to reassess their debt portfolios as mark-to-market losses emerge—particularly in long-duration funds, as reported by ET Bureau.

Why are bond yields rising?
Bond yields are climbing due to a combination of rising crude oil prices and a weakening rupee, both of which add to inflationary pressures.

Reality check
India’s 10-year benchmark yield has risen to around 7% from 6.68% a month ago. Crude oil prices have surged to $115–$120 per barrel. Since India imports nearly 85% of its oil needs, higher prices directly feed into domestic inflation through increased transportation and production costs. At the same time, the rupee has weakened to around 95 against the US dollar, making imports more expensive.

Uncertain periods don't usually arrive one at a time. Groceries get expensive, markets start swinging wildly, layoffs appear in the news, and suddenly, even people who were comfortable feel uneasy. The biggest mistake in moments like this is trying to "win" against uncertainty, chasing high returns, making drastic moves, or assuming one smart decision will solve everything. What actually helps is becoming harder to destabilise.

Give yourself more breathing room than usual
An emergency fund is often described as three to six months of expenses, but during shaky times, a little extra cushion can make a huge emotional difference. This money isn't there to grow. It's there so that if something goes wrong. For instance, there is job loss, medical expense, delayed payments, you don't have to panic-sell investments or borrow at high interest. Think of it less as idle cash and more as insurance you control.

Japanese government bond yields fell sharply on Wednesday as investors scooped up bonds at the start of the new fiscal year, with sentiment aided by optimism for the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.

The five-year JGB yield fell 5.5 basis points to 2.30%, and the 40-year JGB yield fell 12 bps to 3.795%. Bond prices move inversely to yields.

"Domestic banks are seen rebuilding their portfolios as the new fiscal year started, and that supported the market today," said Takafumi Yamawaki, head of Japan rates research at J.P. Morgan Securities.

"Yields on mid-term bonds are at an attractive level given that investors now price in the Bank of Japan's policy rate to rise as high as 2%."

The JGBs saw a heavy selloff last week, sending the five-year bond yield to a record high, as rising oil prices fanned fears of inflation and the BOJ's early interest hike.

Japanese government bond yields jumped on Thursday, after U.S. President Donald Trump dashed hopes for a swift end to the Middle East war, hurting the outcome of the auction for benchmark 10-year bonds.

The 10-year JGB yield jumped 9 basis points (bps) to 2.39%, matching its highest level since February 1999, scaled on Monday.


The 20-year bond yield jumped 15 bps to 3.21%, and the 30-year bond yield rose 9 bps to 3.705%. Yields move inversely to bond prices. In Trump's national address, he said the conflict in Iran would end soon, but the U.S. military would continue to hit targets there over the next two to three weeks.

Indian government bonds fell on the fiscal year's first trading day, pushing the 10-year yield toward a twelfth straight rise as oil climbed after President Donald Trump said attacks on Iran would continue, with traders cautious ahead of a debt sale.

Trump said that Washington would continue to hit targets in the Islamic Republic over the next two to three weeks, dimming hopes of a swift end to the war. Brent crude futures jumped over 6% to $107 a barrel on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol also warned that oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will rise in April, affecting Europe.

The ongoing West Asia conflict has become a contributing factor in stemming the growth of private equity and venture capital (PE-VC) investments in India.
PE-VC investments plunged 22% in the first quarter (Jan–March) of the current calendar year (CY2026) to $9.1 billion, compared with $11.7 billion during the corresponding quarter last year, data released by research firm Venture Intelligence on Wednesday showed.
Investments also declined by 19% ($900 million) in March to $3.8 billion, compared with $4.7 billion in the same month of CY2025. The number of mega deals ($100 million and above) declined from 29 in Q1 CY2025 to 17 in the Jan–March period this year. PE-VC deals exclude those from the real estate sector.

The government on Monday left interest rates unchanged for various small savings schemes, including PPF and NSC, for the eighth straight quarter, beginning April 1, 2026.

“The rates of interest on various Small Savings Schemes for the first quarter of FY 2026-27, starting from April 1, 2026, and ending on June 30, 2026, shall remain unchanged from those notified for the fourth quarter (January 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026) of FY 2025-26,” the finance ministry said in a notification.

As per the notification, deposits under the Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme will attract an interest rate of 8.2 per cent, while the rate on a three-year term deposit remains at 7.1 per cent prevailing in the current quarter.

The interest rates for popular Public Provident Fund (PPF) and post office savings deposit schemes have been retained at 7.1 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) withdrew more than Rs 1.6 lakh crore from Indian equities in FY26 - the highest in a financial year - although a record Rs 8.5 lakh crore of fresh commitments from domestic funds formed the ideal rearguard against the potentially debilitating FII exits through the worst rupee rout in 14 years.

For overseas buyers, Indian risk assets in FY26 appeared to have been caught in the perfect storm due to the Iran conflict, a lingering uncertainty on tariffs, relatively expensive valuations, an AI-led decline in the business prospects of a $280-billion technology industry, and about 10% rupee slide against the dollar.

FY26 marks the second consecutive financial year of FII outflows and fourth in the previous five years, data from ETIG showed. Last year, FIIs withdrew Rs 1.24 lakh crore from stocks and were on track to pull out a similar amount this fiscal year too.

The Reserve Bank of India’s dollar short forward positions rose $9.2 billion to $77.6 billion in February– up 13.5% on month, according to data released by the central bank on Tuesday.

The rise in short positions can be attributed to the regulator’s forex swap, along with FX interventions to defend the rupee, according to market participants.

“The increase is mainly due to RBI’s $ 10 billion swap conducted to infuse liquidity. The net increase is slightly less than $ 10 billion and the more-than-year bucket rose only $ 8.8 billion, implying that some maturities were allowed,” said Guara Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, adding that some intervention in the offshore market also contributed to the rise in the short forward positions.

Forex swap of $ 10 billion
The RBI conducted a forex swap of $ 10 billion on February 4 as a proactive measure to support the liquidity.

India's remittance engine is staring at a stress test it hasn't quite encountered in years.
For a long time, the country's external sector has rested on a quiet but powerful cushion: a steady flow of money sent home by Indians abroad.
As conflict involving Iran and US-Israel escalates in West Asia, alongside the Trump administration's actions on Iran, spilling beyond geopolitics into labour markets and household incomes, India's remittance story is entering a more uncertain chapter.

The Economic Survey 2025-26 notes that private transfer receipts, primarily remittances, continue to be a "key source of external-sector strength."
Inflows rose to $73 billion in the first half of FY26, up from $64.7 billion a year earlier.

Over time, these flows have expanded sharply from $55.6 billion in FYll to $135.4 billion (provisional) in FY25-accounting for about 3.5% of GDP, according to the Survey.